美联储一年内两次打破常规，3%已成为新的通胀目标？

Group 1 - Despite inflation hovering around 3%, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, raising questions about the feasibility of the 2% inflation target [1][2] - The core CPI is projected to rise to 3.1% year-on-year in August, up from 2.9% in July, making a policy easing at such inflation levels a rare occurrence [1][2] - Historical context shows that the last time the Fed eased policy with core PCE inflation at 3% was in the early 1990s, indicating a significant shift in economic norms [1] Group 2 - Hawkish concerns about inflation persist, especially with U.S. federal debt and deficits at historical highs, yet financial markets appear relatively unconcerned [2] - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, reflecting some inflation worries, but overall market sentiment does not seem overly anxious about the Fed's 2% target [2] - The yield curve for 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries has steepened by about 70 basis points this year, indicating market dynamics that may not align with traditional inflation fears [2] Group 3 - Consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with the New York Fed reporting a rise in one-year inflation expectations to 3.2%, suggesting that 3% may be replacing 2% as the new target [3] - Surveys indicate that consumers' long-term inflation expectations are stabilizing around 3%, with political influences potentially pushing for a higher target [3] Group 4 - Some analysts argue that the focus on exceeding the 2% inflation target may be misguided, citing that the average CPI over the past two years has been 2.9% [4] - Historical comparisons suggest that a 2% inflation target may no longer be relevant, with calls for a more pragmatic approach to monetary policy [4] - If inflation data reaches 3% and the Fed cuts rates, it could signal a significant shift in monetary policy direction [4]