黄金交易提醒：金价历史新高后上演“过山车”，这是见顶了吗？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, reaching a historical high of $3674.36 per ounce before retreating to $3626.13 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and weak labor market data [1][3][5] Group 1: Drivers Behind Historical Highs - Gold prices have risen 5.5% in September, accumulating nearly $200 in gains, primarily due to strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reached 100%, with some traders betting on a potential 50 basis point cut [3] - Weak labor market data, with a downward revision of nearly 1 million jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, has further supported gold prices [3][4] Group 2: Profit-Taking and Risk Appetite - Following the historical high, gold prices could not maintain all gains due to a rebound in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, leading to hesitation among gold bulls [5] - The strong performance of the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs, has diverted funds away from the gold market [5][6] Group 3: Inflation Data and Policy Dynamics - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released, which will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations [7] - If inflation data remains subdued, it could reinforce the rationale for rate cuts, providing new upward momentum for gold prices [7] - Conversely, unexpectedly strong inflation data could lead to a reassessment of rate cut expectations, putting pressure on gold prices [7] Group 4: Structural Support for Gold - Despite short-term volatility, structural factors supporting a long-term bullish outlook for gold remain intact, including ongoing central bank demand for gold and increased geopolitical uncertainty [8] - The trade tensions and concerns over global economic slowdown continue to enhance gold's status as a store of value [8] Group 5: Summary of Market Dynamics - The gold market is at a delicate balance point, with strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over global economic uncertainty on one side, and dollar rebound risks and profit-taking pressures on the other [9] - Long-term trends for gold are supported by shifts in global monetary policy, rising geopolitical risks, and increasing demand for asset diversification [9]