金价突破历史新高 现在观望还是“上车”？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,650 per ounce, breaking the inflation-adjusted historical high from January 1980. This surge is causing pressure for consumers, particularly those preparing for weddings, to decide whether to purchase gold now or wait for a potential price drop [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The gold market is in an upward channel, with a long-term trend of de-dollarization continuing. Consumers are advised to buy at relatively low points [1]. - In the first half of the year, China's gold consumption reached 505.205 tons, with jewelry consumption dropping by 26% to 199.826 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 23.69% increase in consumption [3]. - Major financial institutions remain bullish on gold, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce and Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly focused on the practicality of gold purchases, with a preference for items that have high liquidity and lower processing costs, such as gold bars and coins, over more expensive jewelry [3]. - The timing of gold purchases is crucial; consumers are advised to avoid peak seasons like the Spring Festival and National Day, opting instead for the off-peak months of April to June for better pricing opportunities [3]. - When purchasing gold jewelry, consumers should prioritize high-purity items (99.9% purity) and avoid high-cost craftsmanship items that may lead to poor resale value [3].