美联储或9月降息，全球大类资产迎流动性红利？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a shift in global asset classes due to the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and rising expectations for a rate cut in September, following a significant decline in U.S. employment data [1][5]. Historical Review: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Cycles - The article categorizes past Federal Reserve rate cut cycles into three scenarios: 1. Preventive Rate Cuts (1995-1996, 2019): Small and gradual cuts aimed at softening potential economic slowdowns [2]. 2. Recessionary Rate Cuts (2001-2004, 2007-2008): Large and rapid cuts in response to economic recessions or financial crises [3]. 3. Crisis Response Rate Cuts (1987, 1998): Quick measures taken to stabilize market sentiment during specific risk events [4]. Asset Performance During Rate Cut Cycles - Equities: Rate cuts typically boost risk appetite, leading to stock market gains. For instance, after the 2019 rate cut, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 10% over the following year [5][6]. - Bonds: The bond market often reacts first to rate cuts, with U.S. Treasury yields generally declining. Historically, 10-year Treasury yields have dropped by an average of 80-100 basis points during rate cut cycles [7]. - Gold: Gold tends to perform well during rate cut cycles due to lower holding costs and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Since 1990, gold has shown an 83% success rate in the 10 trading days following rate cuts [8][9]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The article suggests that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it may lead to a narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential, potentially easing depreciation pressure on the RMB and allowing for more accommodative domestic monetary policy [7]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining diversified and flexible asset allocations to navigate market uncertainties, regardless of the rate cut outcome [10][11].