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再创历史新高!黄金年内大涨40%升破3670美元 新一轮涨势由何驱动
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-10 09:23

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has surged significantly since the beginning of the year, breaking through the $3600 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase of 40% [1][3][9]. Market Performance - On September 9, the spot gold price reached a record high of $3674.78 per ounce, leading to a strong rally in domestic gold-related stocks, which collectively surged over 5.15% [3][5]. - The COMEX gold futures price also reported a similar year-to-date increase of nearly 40%, closing at $3715.2 per ounce [3]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over the independence of the Fed impacting the US dollar, and heightened risk aversion due to fiscal and political pressures [5][6]. - The downward revision of US non-farm employment data has reinforced expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed, further supporting gold prices [6]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, which provides long-term support for gold prices. The share of dollar assets held by central banks has decreased from 72% in 2000 to an expected 57% by 2025 [8]. - As of August, China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 74.02 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for ten months [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue, with potential targets set at $3800 per ounce in the medium term [9][10]. - Various financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a baseline of $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, and Morgan Stanley setting a target of $3800 per ounce by Q4 2025 [10].