进口大豆数量公布，巴西躺赢！特朗普坐不住，有求于华：很快面谈

Group 1 - In August 2025, China's soybean imports reached 12.279 million tons, with a cumulative total of 73.312 million tons from January to August, indicating a significant shift in global soybean trade dynamics [1] - Brazil now accounts for 71% of China's total soybean imports, with a monthly share reaching 86.6%, while the U.S. share has plummeted from 21% in 2024 to a "very low level" [1][3] - The U.S.-China trade conflict has severely impacted U.S. soybean exports, with tariffs leading to a 94% effective tax burden on U.S. soybeans, making them uncompetitive in the Chinese market [3][4] Group 2 - Brazil has emerged as the biggest winner in the U.S.-China soybean trade war, with exports to China reaching $19 billion in the first half of 2025, accounting for 75.2% of Brazil's total exports [3] - The price advantage of Brazilian soybeans is a key factor in their success, with U.S. soybean prices at $776 per ton compared to Brazil's stable price of $380-$400 per ton, creating a price gap exceeding $30 [3] - U.S. soybean prices have fallen below $10 per bushel on the Chicago futures exchange, leading to severe financial pressure on farmers in traditional agricultural states like Illinois and Iowa [3][4] Group 3 - China has proactively prepared for the trade war by implementing a three-pronged strategy of high tariffs, technical barriers, and alternative supply chains, including long-term contracts with South American countries [6] - China's domestic "Soybean Revitalization Plan" aims for a production target of 21 million tons by 2025, while also adjusting feed formulations to reduce reliance on soybean meal [6] - The trade conflict extends beyond soybeans, with the U.S. heavily reliant on China for rare earth processing, and potential tariffs on rare earth magnets causing supply chain disruptions for U.S. industries [6][8] Group 4 - The ongoing soybean trade war is reshaping the global agricultural landscape, diminishing the U.S.'s historical dominance in agricultural exports and pricing power [9]