美国将成为下一个日本？美元霸权遭遇最大内患，美经济即将崩溃？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks stemming from the U.S. non-farm employment data and critiques the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as a root cause of high inflation, wealth disparity, and uncontrollable debt risks, suggesting a need for a policy framework adjustment [1][2]. Group 1: Critique of the Federal Reserve - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra criticizes the Federal Reserve for serving political demands, which he believes undermines its independence and credibility [2][4]. - Becerra emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to return to its three statutory missions: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and maintaining moderate long-term interest rates, highlighting the importance of the third mission [5]. Group 2: Long-term Interest Rates - Becerra's focus on long-term interest rates, particularly U.S. Treasury yields, is crucial as he aims to ensure economic responsibility amid rising debt levels [6]. - The current high-interest environment poses challenges for funding government spending, with 15% of annual U.S. fiscal expenditures allocated to interest payments, which has increased significantly since the onset of the rate hike cycle in 2022 [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - Recent non-farm employment data indicates a significant drop in job creation, with actual figures at 22,000 compared to an expected 75,000, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [8][10]. - The upcoming revision of non-farm employment data is expected to show a downward adjustment of 800,000 jobs, suggesting that the U.S. economy is on the brink of collapse [10]. Group 4: Potential Policy Actions - Becerra expresses urgency for lowering long-term interest rates, as the transmission of Federal Reserve rate cuts primarily affects short-term yields, while long-term rates are influenced by market dynamics and perceptions of U.S. debt stability [11]. - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to adopt yield curve control strategies similar to Japan's, which could alleviate interest pressure on government debt but may lead to market distortions and reduced foreign investment [13]. Group 5: Global Implications - The article warns that any new round of fiscal expansion in the U.S. could exacerbate debt risks and undermine market trust, potentially leading to a global debt crisis [15]. - The current economic environment in the U.S. differs from Japan's past experience, as the U.S. faces inflation rather than deflation, indicating that high inflation could precede a debt crisis [15].