发车！这波回调会跌多少？

Group 1: Market Overview - The global investment strategy includes buying equities across various markets such as A-shares, US stocks, European stocks, and emerging markets, focusing on sectors like technology, healthcare, and Chinese internet companies, while also investing in commodities for balanced asset allocation [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 is anticipated to be a significant macro event, with a nearly full market expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, and a 10% probability of a 50 basis point cut following a downward revision of non-farm data [1][2] - Historical data indicates that the stock market typically performs poorly in the month following a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the S&P 500 showing an average return of -5% in the first month after a cut [4][5] Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Investor Behavior - September is traditionally a weak month for US stocks, with pension funds and mutual funds rebalancing portfolios, leading to potential selling pressure [3] - Retail investor participation tends to decline in September, and companies often reduce stock buybacks during the quiet period before third-quarter earnings announcements [3] Group 3: Earnings and Economic Outlook - Despite concerns about economic slowdown, major companies have shown strong earnings growth, particularly in the technology sector, which has driven profits year-to-date [8] - The combination of upcoming Federal Reserve easing and fiscal stimulus from policies like Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" suggests potential for stock market gains, even amidst volatility [11] Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is viewed as healthy, with volume contraction being a normal phenomenon during bull market corrections [12][15] - The Chinese stock market is currently in a "recovery" phase, with improving earnings momentum, which is a relative advantage compared to other economies in the region [17] Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of including commodities in investment portfolios as a hedge against future risks, particularly in a world moving towards multipolarity [19][20] - Goldman Sachs highlights a "commodity control cycle" where government interventions lead to a concentration of supply among a few dominant players, raising concerns about future supply security [20]