连平：下阶段财政政策和货币政策应协同发力促内需｜全球财经连线

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Challenges - The global economy in the second half of 2025 faces uncertainties from geopolitical tensions, tariff disputes, and shifts in monetary policy, which demand higher resilience and regulatory capacity from the Chinese economy [1][3] - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade shows unexpected resilience, with expectations for stable performance in the second half of the year [1][6] - The U.S. tariff policies and industrial strategies remain uncertain, impacting global economic stability and potentially accelerating China's technological self-reliance [3][4] Group 2: Policy Coordination and Internal Demand - Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are crucial for stimulating domestic demand, with fiscal spending increasingly directed towards consumption and social welfare [1][7] - The structure of fiscal spending is shifting, with a notable increase in support for consumption and livelihood sectors, reflecting the need for economic transformation [7][8] - Future fiscal policies are expected to enhance direct support for consumption, particularly in healthcare, education, and cultural sectors, to better match consumer demand [8] Group 3: Financial Support for Innovation - Strengthening financial support for technological innovation is urgent, requiring a multi-layered system that integrates direct and indirect financing with policy support [2][13] - Direct financing, such as venture capital, plays a critical role in early-stage technological investments, while capital markets provide long-term support for enterprise expansion [13][14] - Indirect financing through banks must innovate to better support technology enterprises, leveraging digital and AI advancements [13] Group 4: Regional Development and Financial Integration - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has unique advantages, including strong financial centers and an internationalized environment conducive to capital flow [15] - Future strategies should focus on directing investments towards technological innovation, ensuring financial support targets weak links in the industrial chain, and enhancing cross-border financial cooperation [15]