成功预测劳动力市场放缓！沃勒正在成为下任美联储主席“黑马”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller for the position of Fed Chair, highlighting his recent warnings about the labor market and his evolving relationship with the Trump administration [2][3][4]. Group 1: Waller's Economic Insights - Waller warned in July that private sector hiring was "approaching stall speed," indicating a potential downturn in the labor market, despite a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% at that time [2]. - His predictions were validated by subsequent weak employment reports in July and August, reinforcing his credibility as an economist [2]. - Waller's ability to articulate a coherent framework for interest rate cuts has enhanced his reputation on Wall Street, distinguishing him from other candidates who may lack such qualities [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Waller's chances for the Fed Chair position appear limited due to his lack of visibility within Trump's inner circle and the political advisors associated with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement [3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has begun interviewing candidates for the Fed Chair position, with Waller being one of the three strong contenders mentioned by Trump, alongside Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [2][3]. - The political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve has become contentious, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction with the institution's traditional independence and targeting Fed officials he disagrees with [3]. Group 3: Waller's Background and Qualifications - Waller's unique background, having spent much of his career in academia before joining the St. Louis Fed, allows him to communicate effectively with diverse audiences [5]. - His experience includes navigating complex economic discussions, which he believes is essential for formulating monetary policy [5][6]. - Waller's previous challenges to economic orthodoxy, particularly regarding interest rate hikes, have drawn both criticism and validation from the economic community [6]. Group 4: Current Economic Context - As of July, most Fed officials were cautious due to inflation remaining above the 2% target for four consecutive years, influenced by tariffs imposed by Trump [6]. - Waller argues that the Fed should focus on preventing labor market deterioration and consider interest rate cuts despite temporary price effects from tariffs [6][7]. - His recent vocal opposition to prevailing economic policies may be seen as a strategic move to position himself favorably for the Fed Chair role [7].