Doo Financial｜动荡中崛起？全球不确定性下黄金的估值重估逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing market uncertainty due to global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks, and fluctuating central bank policies, highlighting the potential for a revaluation of gold as a safe-haven asset in this complex environment [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Real interest rates are a crucial variable for observing gold price trends. As central banks tighten policies under high inflation, gold often faces pressure due to the lack of interest returns. However, if rates approach a peak or enter a downward trend, the decline in real returns could significantly enhance gold's pricing foundation [3]. - The performance of the US dollar and global liquidity patterns also impact gold. A temporary weakening of the dollar may lead to increased allocation of international funds towards gold and other non-dollar assets. Additionally, the trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is strengthening, as official purchases are becoming a key support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Shifts in Gold Investment Logic - Current market valuation logic for gold is shifting from "short-term hedging" to "medium to long-term allocation." While risk aversion can drive short-term price increases, the long-term value of gold is supported by real interest rates, central bank demand, and the broader liquidity environment [5]. - Overall, the investment logic surrounding gold is becoming more diversified, serving as both a defensive asset during turbulent times and a structural beneficiary amid changes in interest rates and liquidity cycles [5].