央行增持黄金9个月，买金子已成常态，后续价格如何变化？

Core Insights - The structure of China's foreign exchange reserves is changing, with an increasing proportion of gold reserves, reflecting a strategic choice amid global economic uncertainties [1][10] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of mid-2023, China's foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately $329.22 billion, with gold reserves amounting to about 2,300.41 tons (approximately 7.396 million ounces) valued at around $260 billion [3] - China's gold reserves have been consistently increasing for nine months, with a notable addition of approximately 1.86 tons in July, valued at about $2.1 million [3] Group 2: Gold Reserves Growth - Prior to 2000, China's gold reserves were relatively stable at around 1.267 million ounces, but have significantly increased over the past two decades, reaching 7.396 million ounces by the latest data [3] - The gold reserves have seen substantial growth, with a 1.5 times increase by 2010, and a further increase of over one-third from 2014 to 2015, surpassing 5.666 million ounces [3] Group 3: International Gold Prices - International gold prices have entered a bull market, fluctuating between $1,700 and $2,000 per ounce since July 2020, with a recent surge to over $3,435 per ounce [6] - Predictions suggest that gold prices may rise to $3,500 in the short term, with potential for exceeding $4,000 in the medium term due to ongoing global economic volatility [6][10] Group 4: Central Bank Strategies - In light of uncertain U.S.-China trade relations, increasing gold reserves has become a rational choice for central banks, with China maintaining a consistent monthly increase in gold holdings [9][10] - The structural adjustment of foreign exchange reserves towards a higher gold proportion is seen as a proactive measure against inflation risks and global economic uncertainties [10]