PVC：开工率增加出口预期弱，期价或震荡下行

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is currently facing challenges, with expectations of a downward trend due to high inventory levels and weak demand [1] Supply and Demand - Upstream calcium carbide prices have increased by 50 yuan/ton in certain regions [1] - PVC operating rates have increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13%, which is relatively high for this time of year [1] - Downstream operating rates have seen a slight increase but remain low year-on-year, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [1] Market Conditions - India's BIS policy has been extended until December 24, 2025, while Taiwan's Formosa Plastics raised prices by $10 to $30/ton in September [1] - On August 14, India raised the anti-dumping tax on PVC imports from mainland China by approximately $50/ton, leading to weakened export expectations for Chinese PVC in the second half of the year [1] - Social inventory continues to rise and remains at high levels, indicating significant inventory pressure [1] Real Estate Impact - From January to July 2025, the real estate sector is in an adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completed area [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased compared to the same period last year, reaching the lowest level historically [1] Production and Capacity - The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit remains positive, and PVC operating rates have increased while still being relatively high [1] - New production capacities are coming online, with Wanhua Chemical starting production in August, Tianjin Bohua expected to stabilize production in September, and Gansu Yaowang and Qingdao Haigang planning trial runs in September [1] Price and Futures - Calcium carbide price support is weak, and PVC faces significant pressure until demand improves [1] - Currently, there are no substantial policies affecting the PVC industry, and many older facilities are undergoing technical upgrades [1] - The PVC2601 futures contract saw a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 4818 yuan/ton and a maximum of 4878 yuan/ton, closing at 4857 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - As of September 10, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China was 4680 yuan/ton, with the V2601 futures closing price at 4857 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis of -177 yuan/ton, which is considered low [1]