综述｜就业增长数据一夜“缩水” 美联储降息面临艰难平衡

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a revision indicating that 911,000 fewer jobs were added from April 2024 to March 2025 than initially reported [1] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a reduction of 176,000 jobs, professional and business services decreased by 158,000 jobs, and retail lost 126,000 jobs in the revised data [1] - Analysts suggest that the employment market's deterioration began before the implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration, with the trade war contributing to further uncertainty and job market stagnation [1] Group 2 - The revised employment data has led to increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, although the Fed faces a challenging decision regarding the pace of these cuts [2] - The White House criticized the Federal Reserve for maintaining high interest rates for too long, suggesting that a reduction is necessary [2] - Market predictions indicate a high likelihood of at least a 25 basis point cut in September, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut remains low at 10% [2]