Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-09-10 15:22Core Insights - The price data for August 2025 shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, indicating a gradual recovery from low levels [1][2][5] - CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with both indices remaining stable month-on-month [1][4] CPI Analysis - The CPI decline is characterized by a 0.3% decrease in urban areas and a 0.6% decrease in rural areas, with food prices dropping by 4.3% and non-food prices rising by 0.5% [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous rise for four months, driven by policies like "old-for-new" subsidies and rising international gold prices [2][3] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.9% shows a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, with industrial producer purchase prices down by 4.0% year-on-year [4][7] - The recovery of PPI is contingent on sustained "de-involution" policies and timely demand-side stimulus [4][6] Consumer Demand and Price Recovery - Consumer demand is at a critical recovery stage, with expectations of a gradual CPI increase as counter-cyclical policies take effect [5][6] - The improvement in consumer goods prices is attributed to the implementation of consumption promotion policies and the gradual restart of "old-for-new" programs [3][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors, such as coal and steel, have seen price increases due to improved market competition and demand, with coal processing prices rising by 9.7% in August [6][7] - High-tech product demand is also contributing to price increases in related industries, with integrated circuit packaging prices up by 1.1% year-on-year [6][7]