瑞银最新报告：2025 年长期投资该押注哪些方向？这 5 大主题被重点看好

Core Conclusion - UBS identifies five key themes for long-term investment, which are: Digital Consumers, Diversity and Equality, Enabling Technologies, Fintech, and Identifying the Next Frontier [2][3] Group 1: Investment Themes - Digital Consumers: The younger generation, particularly Gen Z, is reshaping consumption patterns, focusing on shared experiences rather than ownership. AI plays a crucial role in transforming traditional sectors like travel and entertainment [3][4] - Diversity and Equality: Global regulations are pushing companies to disclose diversity data, which can help reduce wealth gaps and potentially drive GDP growth over the next decade. Companies with strong diversity frameworks are likely to outperform the market [5][6] - Enabling Technologies: Technologies such as AI, AR/VR, big data, and 5G are expected to reshape multiple industries, with the AI market projected to reach $2.6 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 41% from 2024 [6][7] - Fintech: The fintech sector is anticipated to grow from $310 billion in 2024 to $580 billion by 2030, driven by urbanization, demand from younger demographics, and supportive policies [7][8] - Identifying the Next Frontier: Emerging and frontier economies are expected to be the main drivers of global GDP growth over the next decade, with over 50% of the population in the top 10 developing economies by 2024 [8][9] Group 2: Short-term Cautions - Gene Therapy & Medical Technology: These themes currently rank low in quantitative models, lacking short-term catalysts for improvement. The biotech sector faces significant capital constraints, and medical technology companies need to prove their profitability [9][10] - Smart Mobility: This theme has shown improvement in valuation and momentum, moving off the cautious list. The automotive decarbonization trend is expected to continue, with upcoming events showcasing advancements in electric and autonomous vehicles [11] Group 3: Long-term Investment Logic - Population Growth: The global population is projected to increase from 8.1 billion in 2024 to over 10 billion by 2100, primarily in low- and middle-income countries [12] - Urbanization: The urban population is expected to rise from 55% in 2018 to 68% by 2050, with most growth occurring in Asia and Africa [12] - Aging Population: By 2024, 1 in 10 people globally will be over 65, increasing to 1 in 6 by 2050, with developed countries facing more severe aging issues [12]