中国旭阳(1907.HK)：周期低点仍实现盈利

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coke prices, but still managed to maintain profitability through cost control measures [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 20.549 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [1]. - Net profit for the same period was 87 million RMB, down 34% year-on-year, impacted by lower coke prices [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 11.9%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points, attributed to effective cost-saving measures and a reduction in depreciation expenses [2]. Coke Business - Revenue from coke and coking operations was 6.36 billion RMB, a decrease of 35.2% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of coke fell to approximately 1,400 RMB per ton (excluding tax), a decline of about 30% year-on-year, but rebounded to around 1,500 RMB per ton by the end of July 2025 [1]. - The volume of coke produced increased by 330,000 tons year-on-year, totaling 10.88 million tons [1]. Chemical Business - Revenue from the chemical business was 9.1 billion RMB, down 12.6% year-on-year, primarily due to lower average prices for key products [2]. - The gross profit margin for the chemical segment was 8.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with a tax-prepared profit of 190 million RMB, down 44.9% year-on-year [2]. Hydrogen Energy Business - Hydrogen sales reached 1,114 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with hydrogen revenue of 56 million RMB, up 47% [2]. Operational Management and Trade - Revenue from operational management was 1.275 billion RMB, a decrease of 47% year-on-year, with a tax-prepared profit of 34 million RMB, down 41.2% [3]. - Trade business revenue increased by 53% to 3.73 billion RMB, although it incurred a tax-prepared loss of 184 million RMB, which widened by 8.2% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 170 million, 480 million, and 1.06 billion RMB respectively, reflecting the impact of declining coke prices [1][3]. - The target price remains at 4.2 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 68% from the current stock price [1][3].