就业数据成市场“风向标”，华尔街交易员：通胀难掀股市大波澜？

Core Insights - Wall Street is closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with expectations of persistent inflation pressures, but market reactions may be muted due to employment data influencing sentiment [1] - Major banks have adjusted their forecasts for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with Barclays economists predicting three cuts this year and two more in 2026, while inflation volatility could disrupt these expectations [2] - Despite ongoing inflation pressures, economic growth resilience has reduced short-term risk concerns, as indicated by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projecting a 3% annual growth rate for Q3 [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index is expected to experience a volatility range of approximately 0.7% post-CPI release, lower than the past year's average of 0.9% [1] - The most likely scenarios for August's core CPI indicate a month-over-month increase of 0.3% to 0.35%, with corresponding S&P 500 reactions ranging from a decline of 0.25% to a gain of 1.5% [2][4] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical 20 level, reflecting reduced market anxiety [3] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a focal point, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, and potential further cuts in Q4 depending on inflation data [1][2] - If inflation data shows significant hawkish signals, it could alter the policy expectations for October and December [1] - The interaction between CPI reports and employment data is crucial for determining the Fed's future policy trajectory [4]