每日机构分析：9月10日

Group 1 - Deloitte predicts that U.S. retail sales growth during the winter holiday season will hit a new low since the pandemic, with expected growth of 2.9-3.4%, significantly lower than last year's 4.2% due to economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade policies [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has a 60% probability of a final 25 basis point rate cut in December, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market and inflation falling significantly below targets due to declining energy prices and a stronger euro [1] - Danske Bank analysts highlight that the U.S. August PPI will be closely watched as it precedes the August CPI release and may provide early clues on the accumulation of tariff-related costs [2] Group 2 - InTouch Capital Markets analysts suggest that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve would require core inflation data to be significantly below expectations, but the likelihood of a large cut remains low due to sticky service prices and the Fed's gradual policy approach [2] - City Index strategists warn that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could potentially harm market confidence more than it would benefit, indicating that the Fed is likely to avoid appearing to yield to political pressure [2] - Leuthold Group strategists argue that the Fed's 2% inflation target should be viewed as a reference point rather than a strict constraint, noting that a slightly higher inflation rate could coexist with stable growth [3]