最新政策！中国对欧盟猪肉实施62.4%重税，国内猪价或迎大变革？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government's announcement of imposing temporary anti-dumping duties on EU pork products, ranging from 15.6% to 62.4%, is expected to significantly impact global pork prices and reshape the domestic pork market in China [3][6][23]. Group 1: Market Impact - The announcement led to a sharp decline in stock prices of European pork companies, indicating immediate market reactions [3][6]. - The new tariffs are projected to raise the import costs of EU pork, with the highest rate of 62.4% potentially increasing the cost of imported pork to nearly 49,000 yuan per ton, surpassing the current domestic wholesale price of approximately 38,000 yuan per ton [25][27]. - The influx of EU pork products has historically accounted for over 54% of China's total pork imports from 2020 to 2023, highlighting a significant trade imbalance [10][18]. Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic pork prices have been declining, nearing the breakeven point of 14 yuan per kilogram, with many farmers in major pork-producing provinces facing continuous losses [16][20]. - The introduction of tariffs is expected to shift procurement focus back to domestic pork, potentially increasing domestic demand and stabilizing prices [27][39]. - Analysts predict that by mid-2026, domestic pork prices could exceed 16 yuan per kilogram, indicating a return to a more profitable range for local producers [39]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The anti-dumping measures are anticipated to drive a significant transformation within the Chinese pork industry, pushing it towards a more self-sufficient and competitive model [37][44]. - The focus will shift from large-scale production to more refined, efficient practices across the supply chain, including breeding, farming, and processing [39][41][42]. - The overall goal is to establish a sustainable market order that prioritizes domestic production while allowing for necessary imports [45].