收益率曲线将持续陡峭

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has adjusted with a steepening yield curve, and the correlation between stock and bond markets has weakened as of September. The overall bond market has returned to a fluctuating range without significant changes in the funding and economic fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - As of the latest data, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds are 1.41%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.15%, reflecting changes of 0.23, -0.93, 1.35, and 1.00 basis points respectively since the end of August [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a reasonable liquidity level, with a net injection of 3,865 billion yuan in August through various monetary policy tools [3]. - The current DR001 and DR007 rates are fluctuating around 1.4% and 1.45%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [3]. Group 2: Economic Recovery - The trade data for August shows a year-on-year export growth rate of 4.4% and an import growth rate of 1.3%, both of which have decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.40%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating improvements in both supply and demand sides [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - There is a growing expectation for the PBOC to restart government bond trading, influenced by policy signals and changes in liquidity operations [6]. - The PBOC has been utilizing various tools for medium to long-term funding, with the balance of reverse repos increasing significantly since the end of 2024 [6]. - The necessity to restart government bond trading has increased due to the declining balance of government bonds held by the PBOC [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - With the PBOC's active liquidity support and reduced impact from government bond issuance, significant fluctuations in the funding environment are unlikely in September, and short-term bond trends are expected to remain stable [7]. - The long-term bullish logic for the stock market remains unchanged, which continues to exert downward pressure on long-term bonds [7].