【融汇视点】8月宏观市场回顾：经济延续平稳运行，政策托底与结构性修复并行

Core Insights - The domestic economy in August remains stable, but insufficient internal demand and weaker-than-expected expectations are core constraints, with policy transmission requiring time [1] - Inflation levels are showing a mild recovery, while the decline in industrial profits is narrowing, and exports continue to show resilience, although the real estate market remains weak [1][2] Domestic Perspective: Moderate Recovery in Demand with Policy Support - In August, the macroeconomic environment continues to show stable operation, with signs of structural improvement gradually emerging [2] - CPI remains flat year-on-year, while core CPI shows a slight month-on-month increase, indicating a slow recovery in demand [2] - Industrial profits have seen a narrowing decline for two consecutive months, but still exhibit characteristics of "volume decline, price stability, and negative profit growth," with upstream profits recovering while downstream remains under pressure [2] - High-frequency export data in August continues to be strong, mitigating some external demand pressures [2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to show weakness, with investment and sales data remaining low; however, new policy signals are emerging, such as the lifting of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing and the introduction of "Six Policies" in Shanghai, indicating marginal easing [3] Counter-Cyclical Policies - Demand-side policies are being continuously strengthened, including the introduction of free preschool education and the first instance of central government financial support for consumer loans at a 1% interest subsidy, further enriching the policy toolbox [3] Overseas Perspective: Rising Tariff Pressures and Fed's Rate Cut Signals - The global economy continues to show a differentiated pattern, with international trade policy dynamics becoming a core variable [5] - In the U.S., the extension of tariffs has been implemented, and the Federal Reserve has reiterated its policy independence, with rising effective tariff rates for countries that have not reached trade agreements with the U.S. [5] - The U.S. job market is under increasing pressure, with July non-farm payrolls and ISM manufacturing and services PMIs falling short of expectations, while core PCE and PPI exceeded expectations, raising inflation concerns [5] - Jerome Powell indicated at the Jackson Hole meeting that "policy stance may need adjustment," revising the monetary policy framework to abandon the "average inflation target" in favor of a flexible inflation target, further reinforcing rate cut signals [5] European Perspective - The European Central Bank has decided to pause interest rate cuts, shifting its focus to coordinating fiscal policies to address the dual pressures of inflation and growth [6]