基本面偏宽松 生猪上行动能不足

Supply Side - The number of breeding sows is projected to be 40.42 million by the end of July 2025, exceeding the official normal level of 39 million, indicating a capacity in the green zone [2] - The breeding sow inventory has been gradually recovering since May 2024, suggesting an increase in pig supply starting in March 2025, with a 10-month lag in the market [2] - The current supply of pigs remains ample, leading to downward pressure on prices [2] Demand Side - The upcoming fourth quarter is traditionally a peak demand season, with factors such as lower temperatures, school procurement, and holiday preparations contributing to improved demand for pigs [4] - Higher slaughter profits typically indicate greater consumer acceptance of high-priced pork; however, current trends show low acceptance of high pork prices at the consumer level [4] Market Outlook - Despite a potential demand improvement in the fourth quarter, the high breeding sow inventory suggests continued supply abundance, limiting price increases [6] - The price difference between fresh and frozen pork products is at a historical low, and low storage costs have not led to significant demand for frozen products, further constraining overall demand for pigs [6] - The overall market fundamentals for pigs remain loose, with limited upward price potential expected in the fourth quarter [6]