Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The prices of precious metals have risen due to increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and personnel changes within the Fed [2] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut in September, with silver prices likely to remain volatile at high levels in the short term [2] - Silver's investment attributes are strong, and it may have greater upward potential driven by rate cut expectations [2] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market - The U.S. labor market has shown signs of weakness, with a decrease in non-farm payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate [3] - In August, only 22,000 new non-farm jobs were added, significantly below the expected 75,000, marking a sharp decline from the revised previous month's figure of 79,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased due to the impact of tariff policies and a cooling labor market [4] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled potential rate cuts at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September [4] - Future rate cuts will depend on economic data, with the Fed likely to cut rates in September and December, and possibly two more times in the first half of next year [4] Group 4: Silver Demand and Supply - Strong industrial demand for silver is expected to continue, particularly driven by the photovoltaic industry [5] - The global silver supply gap over the past four years has reached 21,000 tons, equivalent to half a year's global production [5] - In 2025, the global silver supply is projected to be 32,000 tons, while demand is expected to be 35,700 tons, indicating a continued supply-demand imbalance [6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased due to pressure from former President Trump, leading to heightened market risk aversion [6] - The global trade landscape and political uncertainties contribute to a potentially strong short-term performance for precious metals [6] - In the medium to long term, the continuation of loose monetary policy and slowing U.S. economic growth may provide upward momentum for precious metals [6]
美联储降息预期发酵 白银强势运行
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-11 00:59