徽商期货：美联储降息预期发酵，白银强势运行

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The prices of precious metals have risen due to increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and personnel changes within the Fed [1] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut in September, with silver prices likely to maintain high volatility in the short term [1] - Silver's investment attributes are strong, and it may have greater upward potential driven by rate cut expectations [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market - The U.S. labor market has shown signs of weakness, with a significant drop in non-farm payrolls in August, adding only 22,000 jobs compared to the expected 75,000 [2] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since 2021 [2] - Federal government employment continues to drag down the overall job market, with a loss of 15,000 jobs in August [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have increased due to the impact of tariff policies and a cooling labor market [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a potential rate cut at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - Future rate cuts will depend on economic data, with the Fed likely to cut rates in September and December [3] Group 4: Silver Industrial Demand - Silver demand is expected to remain strong, particularly driven by the photovoltaic industry, with a projected supply gap of 3,657 tons in 2025 [4] - The total silver supply is expected to increase to 32,000 tons in 2025, while total demand is projected to decrease to 35,700 tons [4] - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is anticipated to continue increasing, although overall silver consumption may face pressure [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased due to ongoing pressure from former President Trump, leading to heightened market risk aversion [5] - The global trade landscape and political uncertainties contribute to a potentially strong short-term performance for precious metals [5] - In the medium to long term, the continuation of loose monetary policy and slowing U.S. economic growth may provide upward momentum for precious metals [5]