丙烯 维持偏弱震荡

Group 1: Market Overview - The core viewpoint indicates that despite optimistic macro expectations, the propylene industry fundamentals remain weak, with terminal consumption showing signs of fatigue [1][4] - Propylene futures for the 2601 contract have shifted to a downward trend, currently trading in the range of 6350 to 6450 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic propylene production has seen a slight increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 74.98% in early September, reflecting a 0.12 percentage point increase [3] - In August, domestic propylene production reached 530.56 million tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.6% and a year-on-year growth of 15.7% [3] - Despite a decrease in propylene supply from South Korea, Southeast Asia's supply has increased, maintaining overall import levels [3] Group 3: Demand Conditions - The demand for propylene is primarily driven by the polypropylene (PP) sector, which is currently facing challenges, leading to reduced procurement willingness among downstream enterprises [4] - It is projected that the overall consumption of propylene in September will decline by 0.68% month-on-month, totaling 537.2 million tons [4] - Domestic propylene inventories have been steadily increasing, with stock levels as of September 4 reaching 37,000 tons, a 26.55% increase compared to the previous year [4] Group 4: Economic Implications - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may improve macroeconomic conditions, potentially leading to a valuation uplift for chemical products [2] - However, the fundamental weaknesses in the propylene market, characterized by rising supply pressures and weak downstream demand, suggest that the 2601 propylene futures contract will likely continue to experience weak fluctuations [4]