港股存在景气度机会，关注港股科技ETF（513020）、创新药ETF（517110）

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown notable performance recently, with specific ETFs experiencing gains, but the overall outlook suggests that a rebound may not be imminent due to structural differences with the A-share market [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the National Enterprises ETF (159519), Dividend ETF (159331), and Technology ETF (513020), saw increases of 1.95%, 1.37%, and 0.64% respectively [1]. - Since July, the Hong Kong market has underperformed compared to the A-share market, raising questions about potential catch-up growth [1]. Earnings Expectations - There is an expectation of downward revisions in earnings for Hong Kong stocks, contrasting with the A-share market, which is experiencing a positive shift in profit forecasts [1]. - In the first half of the year, Hong Kong's net profit growth was +4.2% year-on-year, but this is a decline from the projected +9.2% for 2024, while A-shares reported a +2.8% increase, recovering from a -3.0% forecast for 2024 [1]. Valuation Insights - The AH premium remains low, having slightly rebounded after reaching 125%, which indicates that Hong Kong's dividend-paying assets are losing their attractiveness compared to A-shares due to a 20% dividend tax for investors using the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. - According to Zheshang Securities, the current appeal of Hong Kong stocks is not strong given the low AH premium [1]. Liquidity and Market Drivers - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut may provide some support for Hong Kong stocks, but historical data suggests that such cuts do not guarantee market uptrends [2]. - The fundamental factors are expected to dominate market movements, with structural opportunities identified in sectors like technology hardware and pharmaceuticals [2]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on specific ETFs such as the Technology ETF (513020) and the Innovative Drug ETF (517110) to capture structural opportunities in the Hong Kong market [2].