贝莱德智库：美联储降息在即 驱动新兴市场股票上涨20%的三大引擎

Group 1 - Emerging markets have shown strong performance this year, with global emerging market bond returns near 9% compared to 4.5% for US Treasury bonds, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 20% versus 14% for the MSCI World Index [1] - The weakening of the US dollar, economic resilience, and disruptive trends are driving the performance of emerging markets, necessitating selective investment strategies [1] - The overall view on emerging market equities is neutral, while there is optimism for local currency bonds in emerging markets [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment has improved, with the IMF predicting a narrowing of the economic growth gap between emerging and developed markets by 2025, despite structural changes in some countries that create favorable conditions for sustained growth [2] - Countries like India and Vietnam are excelling in services and manufacturing, while Mexico and Brazil demonstrate disciplined monetary policies, and Chile's strong financial system adds stability [2] - Some emerging markets have seen inflation rates return to pre-pandemic levels, with interest rate cuts already initiated in countries like Mexico, Indonesia, and Poland [2] Group 3 - The restructuring of supply chains benefits countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam, while Taiwan and South Korea are deeply involved in the semiconductor sector for AI development, and China is advancing its AI technology [3] - South American countries like Chile and Peru benefit from the demand for key materials under the low-carbon transition trend [3] - India is expected to develop into a leading digital economy due to its young population and accelerated digitalization, which supports a positive long-term outlook for emerging markets [3]