沪深两市成交额跌破2万亿，股市牛市结束需要满足哪些条件？

Market Overview - A-shares continue to see a decrease in trading volume, with the trading volume on September 10 dropping by 140.4 billion yuan, falling below 2 trillion yuan for the first time [2] - The daily trading volume has shrunk from 3.15 trillion yuan to less than 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant decline in market enthusiasm and a slowdown in new capital inflow [2] Technical Analysis - The end of a bull market in A-shares requires a significant breach of key technical levels, specifically the half-year line at 3477 points and the annual line at 3359 points [2] - As of September 10, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812 points, indicating that there is still a considerable distance from these critical levels, suggesting that the bull market has not yet ended [2] - A technical bear market is defined by a drop of over 20% from recent highs; the index reached a peak of 3888 points, meaning a drop to around 3110 points would be necessary to confirm a bear market [2] Internal Funding Environment - The margin trading balance remains robust, reaching a historical high, which serves as an important indicator of market sentiment [3] - The current margin trading balance of 2.3 trillion yuan accounts for only about 2.3% of the A-share market's circulating market value, indicating significant room for growth compared to the previous high of 4.7% [3] External Funding Environment - The trend of "deposit migration" is accelerating, with a strong willingness to convert current and one-year fixed deposits into stock market investments [4] - If approximately 5% of these funds flow into the stock market, it could provide substantial incremental capital [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 is a critical factor; a new round of interest rate cuts could enhance liquidity for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - Current market predictions suggest a high probability of a rate cut in September, which could act as a catalyst for the continuation of the bull market [4]