兴业证券：多晶硅价格或成为反内卷效果风向标 静待后续事件催化

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to experience a supply-demand turning point due to "anti-involution," with a focus on the strong cyclical attributes of polysilicon and photovoltaic glass segments [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has established two main strategies: "price increase" and "production limit," aimed at alleviating excessive low-price competition [1][2] - The current round of "anti-involution" differs from previous industry self-discipline efforts in three key aspects: enhanced policy determination with punitive measures, strengthened industry execution leading to rising polysilicon prices, and prolonged loss periods in the polysilicon segment highlighting the dangers of "involution-style" competition [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Economic Indicators - Polysilicon prices have become a barometer for the effectiveness of "anti-involution," with the average price rising to 50,000 yuan/ton, and a potential net profit of 7,000 yuan/ton based on a 70% operating rate [3] - The current low operating rate in the industry increases unit depreciation and other costs, indicating that polysilicon prices have further upward potential to achieve breakeven [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus of the current photovoltaic market is not on the specific mechanisms of supply-side optimization but on the clear determination for "anti-involution," which is expected to lead to price recovery and a healthier industry structure [4]