华泰证券：大宗化工品盈利或迎改善

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the CCPI-crude oil price spread is approximately 480 as of the end of August 2025, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012, reflecting high volatility in oil prices due to ongoing global macroeconomic tensions [1] - The downstream chemical products are entering a demand off-season, resulting in low price spreads for chemical products [1] - The main products with price increases in August are those with tight supply and strong overseas demand, suggesting that the petrochemical industry's profitability has reached a bottom [1] Group 2 - Under the guidance of policies such as "anti-involution," supply-side adjustments are expected to accelerate, potentially improving profitability for bulk chemical products [1] - In the medium to long term, the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, will drive demand increases, making exports a significant growth engine for the domestic chemical industry [1] - Since June 2025, the growth rate of capital expenditure in the industry has been declining, but with accelerated supply-side adjustments, a recovery point may be reached in the second half of 2025, with downstream sectors experiencing cost relief and demand improvement likely to recover first [1]