美联储降息=美股大涨？有一个重要前提和关键指标

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts is heavily dependent on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator for determining the economic trajectory [1][3]. Economic Conditions and Stock Market Performance - Historical data shows that in the past fifty years, there have been seven instances where the Fed paused and then resumed rate cuts. Out of these, four were accompanied by economic recessions, while three saw continued economic expansion, leading to vastly different stock market performances [1][6]. - In scenarios without a recession, the MSCI World Index showed average performance of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months post-rate cut, respectively. In contrast, during recessions, the performance was -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [6][9]. Unemployment Rate as a Key Indicator - The unemployment rate is crucial for distinguishing between recession and economic expansion. Historical data indicates that during recessions, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, accumulating an increase of 2-3 percentage points. Conversely, during economic expansions, the unemployment rate only sees a slight increase before declining within a few quarters [3][13][16]. Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve significantly influences sector performance. Historically, a flattening yield curve during bull markets is most favorable for the stock market, while cyclical sectors perform best during steepening phases in bear markets [5][19]. - If current interest rate pricing remains unchanged, a bull market flattening trend may continue to support the stock market [5][22]. Cross-Asset Performance - In non-recession scenarios, stocks typically outperform bonds, with the S&P 500 index showing a 12-month performance of 16%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains nearly flat. During recessions, bonds perform better, with Treasury yields rising by 8 percentage points, while the S&P 500 index only sees a 12% increase over 12 months [9][12]. Economic Activity Indicators - Economic activity indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing index, typically improve about a quarter after rate cuts in non-recession scenarios. However, during recessions, this index tends to decline for several quarters before bottoming out and recovering [16].