减肥、心脏病、肝病之后，司美还能“抗痴呆”？诺和诺德“寄予厚望”

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drug, semaglutide, is being tested for its efficacy in treating Alzheimer's disease, with results expected this fall. A successful trial could revolutionize Alzheimer's treatment and potentially add $15 billion in annual sales for the company [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Development and Market Context - Semaglutide has expanded its application from obesity and diabetes to heart and liver diseases, and now Alzheimer's [1]. - The research was prompted by a finding that diabetes patients using GLP-1 drugs had a 20% lower risk of developing dementia compared to other treatments [1]. - UBS analysts estimate a 10% chance of success for Novo Nordisk in the Alzheimer's treatment space, but the potential revenue impact is significant if successful [1][2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk has faced growth challenges, leading to two downward revisions of growth forecasts this year due to competition from cheaper alternatives and Eli Lilly's stronger GLP-1 products [2]. - The company's stock price has dropped over 58% in the past 12 months, significantly more than Eli Lilly's 23% decline [2][4]. Group 3: Mechanism of Action and Research Challenges - Semaglutide operates differently from existing Alzheimer's drugs, which primarily target amyloid-beta proteins. It mimics the GLP-1 hormone, potentially reducing inflammation and altering brain glucose metabolism [6]. - The design of the clinical trial poses challenges, as Alzheimer's is known for high failure rates in drug development. The trial will focus on mild patients with detected amyloid proteins [8]. - Even minor positive results could lead to semaglutide being used as a preventive measure for Alzheimer's [8].