DLSM外汇：黄金还能继续上涨吗？CPI数据与市场情绪将给出提示

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations, dollar movements, inflation data, and changes in market risk appetite [1][3][5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is currently in the overbought zone, indicating that the recent upward trend may require consolidation to alleviate high buying pressure [1] - Initial support levels are established around $3,600 and $3,580, with potential testing of mid-term support areas at $3,565–$3,560 and historical lows at $3,510 if prices break down [1] - Resistance levels are concentrated at recent highs of $3,675 and the psychological barrier of $3,700, which will challenge further upward movement [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy significantly impact gold prices, with recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing lower-than-expected increases, reinforcing expectations for future rate cuts [3] - Anticipation of the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August is crucial, as it will provide important insights into inflation trends and monetary policy direction [3] - A CPI reading above expectations may support the dollar, while a lower-than-expected reading could slow the dollar's strengthening [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risk - Market sensitivity to uncertain events can also affect gold prices, as investors tend to increase their focus on safe-haven assets during sudden changes in financial markets, economic data, or the global economic environment [4] - This demand for safety can support gold prices, leading to a defensive characteristic in the short term [5] - The current market is in a phase of waiting for significant data and events, with high-level fluctuations and range-bound movements likely to become the norm [5]