果然财评|黄金这轮“史诗级”牛市为哪般？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing an "epic" bull market, with international gold prices surpassing $3,600 per ounce and domestic gold jewelry prices reaching ¥1,070 per gram, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts, a weak dollar, and central bank gold purchases [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of September 9, the London spot gold price peaked at $3,674.78 per ounce, marking a significant increase from $2,625 at the beginning of the year, with a year-to-date rise of over 40% [2]. - Domestic concept stocks like Western Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining have seen collective price surges [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has been a major catalyst, with market predictions suggesting three potential rate cuts this year, including a 50 basis point cut in September [2]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to 98.1, a new low since April 2022, contributing to the acceleration of gold prices as the dollar's credibility weakens [2]. - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, and a total increase of 166 tons in global official gold reserves in Q2 [3]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The current surge in gold prices reflects a profound transformation in the global trade and financial system, with the U.S. challenging its previous international cooperation frameworks [3]. - The process of de-dollarization is accelerating, with the dollar's share in global allocated foreign exchange reserves decreasing to 57.7% by Q1 2025 [3]. - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, indicating a shift towards a diversified reserve system that includes the dollar, euro, renminbi, and gold [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions are generally bullish on gold, with targets set as high as $5,000 per ounce. Predictions include a baseline forecast of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 from Goldman Sachs and a target of $3,800 per ounce by Morgan Stanley for Q4 2025 [4]. - A consensus among institutions suggests that investors should consider gold as a fundamental asset in their portfolios, with strategies for accumulation during market corrections [4].