金荣中国：现货黄金继续坚守历史高位区间内震荡收窄

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continue to hold strong near historical highs, currently trading around $3,645 per ounce, following a record high of $3,674 on September 10, with a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to solidified expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions, reinforcing gold's status as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, indicating cooling inflation pressures in the U.S. economy [3] - The PPI's year-on-year increase was only 2.6%, below the expected 3.3%, suggesting a slowdown in inflation momentum, particularly driven by falling service prices [3] - The U.S. dollar index showed minimal movement post-PPI data release, closing at 97.83, reflecting a nearly 10% decline year-to-date, influenced by chaotic trade and fiscal policies [3] - The bond market mirrored these sentiments, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.038%, a five-month low, supported by strong demand in Treasury auctions [4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have intensified, with a 100% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting, and an 8-10% chance of a 50 basis point cut [4] Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes and Poland's downing of a Russian drone, have further supported gold prices as investors seek safety amid rising global uncertainties [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are showing strong momentum, with potential to test the $3,700 mark, as short-term support is observed around $3,635 [6] - Traders are advised to monitor support levels at $3,630 and $3,623 for potential long positions, while resistance is noted at $3,660 and $3,700 [6]