“经济内循环”下，9月起对百姓有什么影响，房子越来越不值钱？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "economic internal circulation" strategy on the real estate market in China, highlighting concerns about property value depreciation and the changing dynamics of housing as an investment asset [1][7][19]. Group 1: Economic Internal Circulation - "Economic internal circulation" refers to a development model where a country's economy relies more on domestic markets, demand, and supply, forming a new growth pattern [2]. - In the first half of 2025, domestic demand contributed 89.3% to economic growth, indicating a significant reliance on internal demand [2]. Group 2: Consumer Market Changes - To stimulate domestic consumption, over 300 cities in China will host "Golden Autumn Consumption Season" activities starting September 2025, expected to boost retail sales by approximately 7% [4]. - Major discounts on large consumer goods, such as cars and home appliances, are being offered, with some "trade-in" subsidies reaching up to 15% of the product price [4]. Group 3: Employment Market Dynamics - The employment market is undergoing structural changes, with new industries like digital economy and health services seeing a 15.3% year-on-year increase in employment [5]. - The shift towards new job opportunities reflects the ongoing structural adjustment in the job market [5]. Group 4: Investment Channel Diversification - New regulations effective September 1, 2025, will broaden the range of financial products available for personal investment, including carbon-neutral funds and public REITs [6]. - REITs offer a more liquid investment option compared to direct property purchases, with annual returns around 5%, appealing to families seeking better wealth management [6]. Group 5: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a price correction, with a 2.3% decline in residential price indices across 70 major cities in the first half of 2025 [7]. - First-tier cities show relative price stability, while second-tier cities have seen slight declines, and third- and fourth-tier cities face more significant adjustments, with some experiencing over a 5% drop [7][8]. Group 6: Factors Influencing Real Estate Prices - The decline in new housing supply is attributed to ongoing regulatory policies, with new construction down 18.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [8]. - Demographic changes, including an increase in the elderly population and urbanization rates, are affecting housing demand, leading to a slowdown in price growth [8]. Group 7: Implications for Households - The return of housing's "residential attribute" suggests a shift away from its investment appeal, benefiting genuine homebuyers by easing purchasing pressure [11]. - The real estate market is expected to exhibit structural differentiation, requiring buyers to make more informed decisions based on location and economic conditions [12]. Group 8: Recommendations for Different Buyer Types - For first-time homebuyers, the current market presents favorable conditions, with opportunities to purchase at lower prices and increased developer promotions [14]. - Families seeking to upgrade their living conditions should consider the current market adjustments as a chance to trade up to better properties [16]. - Investors should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on economically strong areas and being prepared for long-term holdings due to lower rental yields [17].