美国非农与镍市场：下修91.1万，镍价区间震荡

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data has been significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs, marking the largest downward revision since 2000, which increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1] Economic Indicators - As of August, the consumer price index (CPI) remained stable month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while the core CPI rose by 0.9%, marking a four-month consecutive increase [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, narrowing the decline by 0.7 percentage points [1] Nickel Market Dynamics - Indonesia's PNBP policy is restricting the issuance of nickel resources, increasing supply costs, while domestic trade maintains stable premiums [1] - The Philippines has seen a recovery in nickel ore supply, but domestic nickel ore port inventories are declining, leading to tighter raw material availability [1] - On the smelting side, major companies maintained stable production in July, with some smelters increasing output and new capacity being introduced, resulting in a slight increase in refined nickel production [1] Demand and Pricing Trends - The profitability of stainless steel mills has improved, leading to increased production, while the production and sales of new energy vehicles are rising, although demand for ternary batteries remains limited [1] - Recent nickel prices have declined, prompting downstream purchasing at lower prices, with stable spot premiums and increases in both domestic and overseas LME inventories [1] Technical Analysis - There is a significant divergence in positions with increased holdings and price adjustments, indicating a wide range of fluctuations in the market [1] - It is suggested to maintain a wait-and-see approach while monitoring the support level at 12.0 [1]