美联储降息：美股表现取决于衰退，失业率成关键

Core Viewpoint - Barclays indicates that the performance of the U.S. stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts will depend on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Market Performance - Historically, after the Fed has paused and then resumed rate cuts, there have been 4 instances of recession and 3 instances of continued expansion over the past 50 years, leading to significant differences in stock market performance [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may restart its rate-cutting cycle next week, with approximately 6 cuts anticipated over the next 12 months [1] - In the absence of a recession, the stock market tends to rise steadily after rate cuts, reaching new highs within 6 months; conversely, during a recession, the market initially declines but rebounds over the following 12 months [1] Group 2: Unemployment Rate as an Indicator - The unemployment rate is crucial in distinguishing between recession and expansion scenarios; during a recession, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, while in an expansion, it may slightly increase before declining [1] - Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts [1] Group 3: Historical Performance Metrics - Historical data shows that in non-recessionary periods, the MSCI World Index averages gains of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1, 3, 6, and 12 months post-rate cuts, respectively; during recessions, the averages are -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [1] - Cross-asset performance also varies significantly based on economic conditions [1] Group 4: Employment Market Indicators - Leading indicators in the employment market suggest that wage growth may be slowing, and indices such as the ISM Employment Index indicate a weakening in job growth, although the U.S. surprise index remains positive [1] Group 5: Activity Indicators - In non-recessionary periods, the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to improve about a quarter after rate cuts, while it continues to decline for several quarters during recessions [1] Group 6: Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve influences sector performance; prior to rate cuts, bull markets tend to steepen, while during recessions, this steepening is more pronounced [1] - In non-recessionary scenarios, the yield curve typically steepens and then flattens a few months after rate cuts; during recessions, the curve initially steepens before flattening in a bear market, with a recovery leading to a steepening again after 6 months [1] - A flattening yield curve is favorable for the stock market, with cyclical sectors performing well during bear market steepening [1] - Currently, the decline in U.S. real interest rates is pushing yields lower, benefiting short-cycle sectors [1]