Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, reflecting confidence in the Eurozone's ability to withstand external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and political instability in France [1] Interest Rates - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel strongly opposes further rate cuts, citing potential inflationary pressures from trade tariffs and increased fiscal spending [2] - Other officials express a lack of urgency for further action, with some suggesting a wait-and-see approach to economic data [2] - Market expectations indicate a less than one-third chance of another rate cut this year, although some officials hint at the possibility of a rate cut in December due to geopolitical uncertainties and a strong euro [2][3] Economic Outlook - New economic forecasts from the ECB may show gradual economic recovery, with medium-term inflation expected to reach target levels [4] - Despite facing higher tariffs and the negative impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Eurozone economy remains resilient, with business activity expanding and German business confidence at its highest since 2022 [4] - However, signs of weakness are also present, with low investment and private consumption in the second quarter, and inflation slightly above target at 2.1% [4] France's Economic Situation - France remains a significant source of uncertainty for the Eurozone due to its public finances [5] - The resignation of Prime Minister François Bayrou and the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as his successor highlight the challenges in managing the largest deficit in the Eurozone [6] - The instability in France leads to higher borrowing costs compared to lower-rated Italy, and market participants will closely monitor ECB President Lagarde's comments on the situation [6]
欧洲央行今夜料按兵不动 本轮降息周期或已结束
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-11 06:49