日本央行放风？酝酿启动ETF抛售，出售方案渐趋明朗，时机成最大悬念

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is accelerating plans to reduce its substantial ETF holdings, with a gradual market sale of these risk assets being the primary strategy. The timing of this policy initiation remains uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Reduction Strategy - The internal strategy of the Bank of Japan will focus on "phased, small-batch, gradual sales" rather than alternative methods like transferring to state-owned entities [2]. - The Bank of Japan's experience from 2002 to 2010, where it sold bank stocks, will inform its approach to selling ETFs, aiming to avoid market turmoil through long-term, small-scale transactions [2]. - Since 2010, the Bank of Japan has accumulated ETF holdings amounting to 35 trillion yen (approximately 251 billion USD), which now faces pressure for market-driven "digestion" [2]. Group 2: Necessity of ETF Sales - Selling ETFs is viewed as a crucial step for the current governor, Ueda Kazuo, to conclude the large-scale monetary stimulus initiated by his predecessor [3]. - Unlike government bonds that automatically drop off the balance sheet upon maturity, ETFs do not have a maturity date, necessitating active sales for balance sheet normalization [3]. - The Bank of Japan has maintained a cautious stance regarding the timing and method of ETF sales, emphasizing the need for a "proper" price to avoid losses or significant market disruption [3]. Group 3: Timing and Political Factors - The timing of the ETF sale remains a significant issue, with no consensus reached within the Bank of Japan on when to proceed [4]. - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to make a decision on ETF sales in the upcoming policy meeting, although comments may be made afterward [4]. - Political uncertainty following the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has created a challenging environment for the Bank of Japan to act, as the new government's policy direction is still unclear [5].