UBS(US:UBS) 智通财经网·2025-09-11 07:14Group 1 - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti expressed uncertainty regarding the impact of global tariff policies initiated by President Trump on the U.S. economy and inflation, complicating predictions for Federal Reserve policy [1][3] - Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve initiating a new round of rate cuts in September, with traders betting on three consecutive cuts by the end of the year to stimulate a slowing economy and a weak labor market [1][2] - Barclays economists have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, aligning with Goldman Sachs' expectations, indicating a shift in focus from combating inflation to addressing potential economic slowdown [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the median economist estimate of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2] - The downward revision of non-farm payrolls for June and July by a total of 21,000, including a negative growth in June, has led some traders to anticipate a larger rate cut of 50 basis points [2] - The current economic conditions suggest that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be "slightly behind" the actual economic situation, potentially leading to more aggressive dovish signals than expected in September [2] Group 3 - Ermotti highlighted the need to understand whether tariffs will have a lasting negative impact on inflation, indicating that the true effects will be felt by consumers [3] - The global economy is becoming increasingly divided, driven by emerging technologies and artificial intelligence, contrasting with more traditional sectors [3] - The complex geopolitical environment adds to the uncertainty surrounding economic growth, as noted by Ermotti [4] Group 4 - UBS is engaged in discussions with the Swiss government regarding trade agreements, particularly in light of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Swiss exports [4] - The relationship between UBS and the Swiss government has been strained due to UBS's opposition to new capital regulation proposals, which are seen as overly punitive [6] - Following the collapse of Credit Suisse, the Swiss government is considering new capital rules that could significantly increase UBS's capital requirements, raising concerns about the bank's growth and operational strategy [6]