ExxonMobil May Be Falling Now, But Is It a Buy Long Term?

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil's shares have declined approximately 10% from their 52-week high due to lower oil prices, but the company's robust growth strategy and potential for shareholder returns position it as a compelling long-term investment opportunity [1][11] Growth Strategy to 2030 - ExxonMobil has a plan that could generate an additional $20 billion in earnings and $30 billion in cash flow by 2030, translating to a 10% compound annual growth in earnings and 8% in cash flow over the next several years [3] - The foundation of this strategy includes an investment of about $140 billion into major capital projects and the Permian Basin development program, expected to yield returns exceeding 30% over the investment's life [4] High-Margin Energy Products - The company is investing in projects to expand high-margin energy products, including renewable diesel, thermoset resin, and graphite, with expectations that these new businesses could contribute $3 billion to annual earnings by 2030, potentially growing to $13 billion by 2040 [5] Cost Management - ExxonMobil has achieved $13.5 billion in structural cost savings since 2019, aiming for a total of $18 billion by 2030, which will enhance its earnings capacity [6] Cash Flow Generation - The company estimates it will generate a cumulative $165 billion in surplus cash by 2030, assuming oil prices average $65 per barrel, providing more cash for shareholder returns [7] Shareholder Returns - ExxonMobil returned an industry-leading $18.4 billion in cash to shareholders in the first half of the year, with plans to repurchase $20 billion in stock this year and a similar amount next year, contingent on market conditions [8] - The company has a strong track record of increasing dividends, having raised its payment for 42 consecutive years, the longest streak in the oil sector [9] Financial Strength - ExxonMobil ended the second quarter with $15.7 billion in cash and an ultra-low net leverage ratio of 8%, leading the oil industry, which provides flexibility for continued investment and shareholder returns even in declining oil price scenarios [10]