【浙商宏观||李超】欧日债市异动传递了什么信号？

Core Viewpoint - Recent attempts by major economies in Europe and Japan to maintain fiscal discipline have failed, leading to a decline in international capital confidence towards these regions, particularly due to unfavorable trade negotiations with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions in Europe and Japan - The yield on France's 30-year government bonds rose from 4.16% on August 1 to 4.45% on September 1, with a widening gap of 10 basis points compared to 10-year bonds, primarily due to the government's controversial fiscal measures [2] - The yield on the UK's 30-year bonds increased from 5.35% to 5.64% in the same period, with a widening gap of 9 basis points, driven by economic slowdown and internal pressures on the Labour Party [2] - Japan's 30-year bond yield rose from 3.11% to 3.23%, with a 6 basis point widening, influenced by political instability following the ruling coalition's failure in the Senate elections [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. long-term bond yields are influenced by different factors compared to Europe and Japan, including concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and recent weak employment data [3] - The U.S. economy is transitioning to an investment-driven model, with private non-residential investment contributing significantly to GDP growth, indicating a shift in economic momentum [7] - The employment impact of investment is lower than that of consumption, suggesting potential structural changes in employment data as the economy evolves [8] Group 3: Trade Negotiations and International Capital - Unfavorable outcomes from trade negotiations have weakened international capital confidence in Europe and Japan, with the U.S. gaining a more advantageous position [5][6] - The U.S. has successfully negotiated significant investment commitments from major economies, reducing trade policy uncertainty and enhancing its economic outlook [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain resilience, supported by increased capital expenditures and foreign investment commitments, while the dollar and Nasdaq are projected to perform well [11] - The Chinese yuan may appreciate against the dollar, with both currencies potentially experiencing a "dual bull" scenario as the yuan returns to a neutral position [11]