李迅雷|大国债务：经济增长的代价

Group 1 - The macro leverage ratio in China rose by 1.9 percentage points to 300.4% in Q2 2025, marking the first time it has exceeded 300% [1] - The increase in China's macro leverage ratio is attributed to the growth of debt outpacing nominal GDP growth [2] - By the end of 2019, the macro leverage ratios for China, Germany, Japan, and the US were 239.5%, 202%, 382.9%, and 256.3% respectively, with China's ratio showing the most significant increase by 2024 [2] Group 2 - The leverage ratio of the non-financial corporate sector in China has shown a pattern of increase since 2022, reaching 139.4% by Q3 2024, driven by accelerated investment in manufacturing and emerging industries [7] - The average asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises in China's A-share market is 85.6%, higher than that of non-state-owned enterprises at 78.3% [9] - The government leverage ratio in China has increased from 59.6% at the end of 2019 to 88.4% by the end of 2024, contrasting with the trends in Germany, Japan, and the US [11][13] Group 3 - China's government has effectively implemented counter-cyclical policies, resulting in a more favorable outcome compared to Western countries during economic downturns [15][20] - The increase in China's government leverage ratio is not solely linked to international financial crises, as evidenced by significant increases during periods of domestic economic challenges [20]