45万亿，中国智驾的新风口来了

Core Insights - The L4 autonomous driving market in China is expected to exceed 45 trillion yuan by 2035, with significant acceleration in commercialization by 2025 driven by policy, technology, and application scenarios [1][28]. Policy Developments - National planning and pilot programs in five cities clarify accident liability and remove institutional barriers [2]. - The release of policy benefits is expected to lead to a significant increase in L4 vehicle ownership, projected to surpass 100,000 units by 2025, contributing over 20 billion yuan to the related industry chain [2]. Technological Advancements - Continuous reduction in system costs and enhanced vehicle-road-cloud collaboration improve reliability in complex environments [2][3]. - The industry is transitioning from low-speed closed scenarios to medium-high speed open scenarios, with a focus on "vehicle-cloud" and "vehicle-road-cloud" collaboration as standard [3]. Application Scenarios - L4 autonomous driving is entering commercial exploration and widespread application in low-speed semi-open and closed scenarios, while medium-high speed open scenarios are still in early stages [4]. - Various application scenarios include Robotaxi, unmanned delivery, and trunk logistics, with significant cost savings reported in industrial and commercial parks [6][10]. Commercial Models - The primary commercial models for L4 technology include product sales and operational management, with product sales being the main focus [4]. - In urban delivery, the main model is "direct sales + subscription service," with vehicle prices below 100,000 yuan and monthly subscription fees around 2,000 to 3,000 yuan [10]. Financial Performance - Robotaxi operations can generate annual revenues exceeding 150,000 yuan per vehicle, with a gross profit margin of approximately 21% [12]. - Robobus operations in urban microcirculation and park connections can yield annual revenues of nearly 700,000 yuan, with a gross profit margin of 25% [14]. Industry Trends - The L4 autonomous driving sector is moving from technology validation to commercialization, facing challenges such as technical bottlenecks, regulatory gaps, and ethical data considerations [28]. - The market is expected to penetrate over 13% by 2035, with a shift towards cross-scenario operational platforms integrating shared economy elements [28].