美联储下周降息已“板上钉钉”，今夜CPI能否敲开50基点大门？

Group 1 - Recent dovish economic data has paved the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a high probability of a rate cut next week [1][4] - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show a rebound in inflation, with overall CPI projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year [2][4] - Core CPI is anticipated to remain stable at 3.1% year-over-year, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3% [2][4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts a 0.36% increase in core CPI, reflecting upward pressure from tariffs, car prices, and airfare [4][5] - Morgan Stanley and other analysts note that tariffs are beginning to impact inflation, with significant price increases expected in various categories due to tariff-related costs [8][9] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 92% probability for this outcome, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut remains at 8% [4][9] Group 3 - Market reactions to the CPI data are being closely monitored, with potential movements in the S&P 500 index depending on the core CPI results [10][11] - If core CPI increases beyond 0.4%, the S&P 500 could see a decline of 1.5% to 2%, although this scenario is considered unlikely [11] - The options market indicates limited concern for significant market volatility following the CPI release, with implied volatility at a yearly low [12]