金价飙破3600美元！降息预期只是开胃菜，数字黄金才是真正推手？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with "digital gold" playing a crucial role in enhancing the financial attributes of physical gold [1][4]. Economic Data - U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [2]. - The deterioration in employment data has heightened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, with speculation of potentially two rate cuts to support economic growth [2]. Historical Context - Historically, gold prices have averaged a 6% increase within 60 days following the start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, as lower interest rates reduce the implicit costs of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. Political Factors - Domestic political factors, particularly Trump's criticism of Powell and concerns over the Fed's independence, are contributing to the instability of the U.S. dollar, which in turn enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern instability, are fostering a strong market sentiment for risk aversion, further supporting high gold prices [7][10]. Digital Gold Initiative - The World Gold Council is preparing to pilot "digital gold," which could significantly enhance gold's financial attributes and potentially drive prices higher [7]. - Digital gold offers advantages such as lower transaction costs, smaller trading units (0.01 ounces), and 24/7 trading capabilities, making it more accessible to investors [12][15]. Comparison with Gold ETFs - Unlike gold ETFs, which are securities linked to gold prices, digital gold represents actual gold stored in London, providing a more direct and responsive investment option [13]. Strategic Goals - The introduction of digital gold aims to increase trading activity and profitability for the World Gold Council, while also serving the strategic goal of revitalizing London's financial sector amidst challenges to the dollar's stability [15].