美股科技股涨得太快，投资者开始慌了

Group 1 - Recent rapid rise in tech stocks has raised concerns among investors about potential weakening momentum, with the Nasdaq 100 index maintaining an upward trend for five consecutive months, supported by bets on the AI boom and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Oracle's stock surged nearly 36%, marking its highest single-day gain since 1992, reflecting strong investor interest in tech stocks [1] - Some investors are opting to lock in year-to-date gains through put options, with the cost of hedging against a 10% decline in the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF reaching its highest level since 2022 [1] Group 2 - Market strategist Greg Boutel from BNP Paribas noted that the current market is at a high level with low volatility, indicating multiple reasons for hedging, especially given September's historical seasonal weakness [4] - The put-to-call skew for QQQ options indicates a high demand for "downside insurance," nearing panic levels at the 92nd percentile, with put option costs significantly elevated [4] - Nomura's strategist Charlie McElligott emphasized that tech stock positions are crowded, necessitating hedging against "tail risks," despite lower demand for call options [4] Group 3 - Despite major volatility indicators like the VIX remaining below 16, market tension is evident in other areas, with significant investments in put options for the S&P 500 ETF Trust [5] - Historical data shows that September has been the worst-performing month for stocks, with a 56% probability of negative returns since 1927, providing a basis for current hedging behaviors [5] - Boutel compared the current market to 2019, suggesting a "shallow hedging" strategy to balance cost and immediate protection needs, while recommending selling deep out-of-the-money puts [5]