IEA预警：全球石油供应增速超预期，2026年或面临严重过剩

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that global oil supply growth will exceed expectations due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries, suggesting a potential supply surplus by 2026 [1][2] - The IEA has revised its 2025 oil supply growth forecast to an increase of 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd), up from the previous estimate of 2.5 million bpd, with a further increase of 2.1 million bpd expected in 2026 [1] - Despite an upward revision in global demand growth to 740,000 bpd for this year, supply growth is anticipated to outpace demand significantly [1][2] Supply and Demand Imbalance - The IEA's report highlights a looming supply surplus, projecting an average increase in global inventories of 2.5 million bpd in the second half of 2025, with a potential supply excess of approximately 3.3 million bpd next year [2] - The anticipated supply growth is attributed to OPEC+, the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, while demand expansion remains limited [2] - The IEA acknowledges that geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and potential additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could alter market dynamics, indicating that a surplus may not materialize as expected [2] - China's continued oil reserves accumulation contributes to a market structure where spot prices for Brent crude are higher than future contracts, indicating tight supply conditions [2]